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Judul :
ESTIMASI BEBERAPA FAKTOR YANG BERPENGARUH TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA 1988.1V-1999.IV Pendekatan = Backward Looking dan Forward Looking The Estimation of Factors Affecting on Inflation in Indonesia 1988.IV-1999.IV
Pengarang : Sumiatun, Ahmad Jamli
Jurnal : Sosiohumanika 2001, XIV(3)
Tahun : 2001
Summary / Kata Kunci : ABSTRACT
This research is aimed to estimate the effects of money supply, real income, exchange rate, real government expenditure and policy of oil price increacing on inflation in Indonesia which uses Backward Looking and Forward Looking Spesification.
This research uses quarterly time series data from 1988.1V-1999.1V: or consist of 45 observations. The data is taken from several publications. If quarterly data were not available, the interpolation procedure would be used. Methods of analysis used in this study are Error Correction Model for backward approach and Forward Looking Buffers Stock Model for forward approach.
The estimation results of ECM show that in the short run the money supply, government expenditure and policy of oil price increasing have a significant effect on inflation, but real income and exchange rate have not any significant effect on inflation. In the long run, money supply and real income have a sirificant effect on inflation, but the exchange rate and government expenditure have not any significant effect on inflation.
The t-test of Error Correction Term is significant. This indicates that the Error Correction Model is valid. The specification of Forward Looking Buffer Stock Model informed that the economic agents have fully forward looking expectation behaviour. This is shown by the sign and statistical significance as hyphothesized.
The result of J-test for the selection between Error Correction Model and Forward Looking Buffers Stock Model indicates that Forward Looking Buffers Stock Model for inflation is better than the Error Correction Model.

Key words: Inflation — Error Correction Model — Forward Looking Buffers Stock Model
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